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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.