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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."